TTP in Pakistan After the Taliban Takeover

Despite the two nations' close connections, the Taliban's control of Afghanistan has been far from a blessing for neighboring Pakistan. Zahid Shahab Ahmed gives context and examines Pakistan's security issues as a result of the Taliban's authority over Afghanistan.

As US soldiers began to depart from Afghanistan in July–August 2021, the Taliban took control of the nation. They now have complete control of the country and have formed an interim administration that they claim is inclusive. Internationally, Pakistan is considered the Taliban's primary partner, and Islamabad sees the Taliban-led rule as friendly, but Afghanistan's rising instability continues to have a negative impact on Pakistan's security. The purpose of this essay is to examine Pakistan's terrorist situation after the Taliban took over Afghanistan in August 2021.

History

Understanding Pakistan's national interests in relation to Afghanistan requires some historical context. Afghanistan was the only country that rejected Pakistan's admission to the United Nations after it gained independence from the British Empire in 1947. Kabul's stance was shaped by its resistance to the Durand Line deal between Afghanistan and the British Raj. Following Afghanistan's attacks on Pakistan's Balochistan and erstwhile Federally Administered Tribal Areas in the 1950s, the bilateral relationship deteriorated (ex-FATA). Afghanistan began helping Pashtun and Baloch tribes in Pakistan under Daoud Khan. Islamabad was eventually compelled to devise a stronger strategy in order to establish some influence in Afghanistan. This occurred during the tenure of Prime Minister Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto when the Afghan Cell was founded in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Pakistan sought to cultivate contacts with Afghan Islamists such as Burhanuddin Rabbani.

Following the Soviet conquest of Afghanistan in 1979, Pakistan was presented with a significant opportunity. Then Pakistan became a frontline US partner in the US's proxy war in Afghanistan, in which Pakistan played a crucial role in recruiting, training, and supporting mujahideen against Soviet forces in Afghanistan. Pakistan retained its influence after the Soviet exit and hosted numerous Afghan political figures in 1992. This conference resulted in the signing of the Peshawar Accord, which formed an interim administration in Afghanistan. The Peshawar Accord failed due to disagreements among the principal protagonists, precipitating a civil war in the nation. The Taliban eventually formed as a political organization, establishing the Islamic Emirate (IEA) in 1996.

Following September 11, 2001, terrorist attacks in the United States, Washington attempted to persuade the IEA to hand over Al Qaeda's leadership to the US, but the Taliban refused due to the Pashtun code of behavior (Pashtunwali), which requires safeguarding guests. The US-led NATO soldiers struck Afghanistan and won quickly, as the IEA crumbled and many of its top officials fled to Pakistan.

Despite its participation in the US-led 'War on Terror,' Pakistan maintained ties with the Taliban. This was represented in a variety of ways, including Islamabad hosting Afghan peace negotiations and supporting conversations held by other parties such as the United States, China, Qatar, and Russia. Pakistan, like other regional actors, encouraged peace talks between the Taliban and the US. As a result, Islamabad supported the US–Taliban peace agreement, which was signed in Doha in 2020.

The US was required to remove all forces from Afghanistan as part of the peace agreement to which the Ashraf Ghani administration was not a party. Following a change in leadership in the United States, the Biden administration declared a complete withdrawal by the twentieth anniversary of 9/11. ( September 11, 2021). While US soldiers were departing in July–August 2021, the Taliban launched an attack in Afghanistan, seizing more territory. Surprisingly, the Taliban encountered little opposition from the Afghan National Army.

Pakistan has been pressing regionally and globally since the Taliban's takeover to ensure that the international community remains committed to Afghanistan. Islamabad is concerned about the potential spillover effects of a serious humanitarian catastrophe in Afghanistan. As a result, Pakistan has utilised all available avenues, both bilateral and multilateral, to seek increased humanitarian assistance for Afghanistan. Pakistan's concerns are not resolved, since increased insecurity in Afghanistan is a key contributor to rising terrorism in Pakistan.

Terrorism in Pakistan Is Growing??

During the course of the US-led NATO campaign in Afghanistan, Pakistan experienced a significant spike in terrorist events. Between 2001 and 2021, Pakistan lost approximately 80,000 people and experienced economic losses totaling more than $100 billion. This was mostly due to Al Qaeda militants being relocated from Afghanistan to Pakistan. Pakistan has achieved great progress against terrorism via repeated military operations, but this is now jeopardized due to the presence of anti-Pakistan militants in Afghanistan. A UN study issued in 2020 warned of the existence of over 6,000 anti-Pakistan terrorists in Afghanistan, the majority of them belonging to the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP).

Rising terrorism is already having an immediate negative impact on Pakistan's security. TTP's operations in Pakistan have multiplied since August 2021, with financing, recruiting, and attacks in locations other than ex-FATA. Simultaneously, the Islamic State-Khorasan Province has been targeting Pakistan, including an attack on a Shia mosque in Peshawar in March 2022. Between August 2021 and March 2022, there were 272 terrorist events in Pakistan, according to the South Asia Terrorism Portal.

Despite the TTP's attack, the Pakistani government's initial response was to pursue a political solution with the organization. The Taliban sponsored these talks, particularly Siraj Haqqani, the Taliban's first deputy commander since 2016. The TTP first demanded that the government rescind its decision on the merger of ex-FATA and KP, but retracted this demand as the discussions progressed. The TTP declared a cease-fire in November 2021 in exchange for the government releasing TTP prisoners. Pakistan will free 80 TTP detainees in December 2021. Nonetheless, the TTP canceled the truce in December 2021, claiming the Pakistani government failed to follow its pledges, such as releasing 102 TTP captives by November 2021. The TTP also accused the government of breaking the ceasefire agreement by conducting security operations against the organization in Lakki Marwat, Swat, Bajaur, Dir, and Swabi. This might be because the administration had not made a decision on TTP amnesty. There are continuing skirmishes between the Pakistan army and TTP terrorists, with both sides suffering losses.

Crux

Given the Taliban's link with the TTP, Islamabad has urged Kabul to solve the country's rising terrorist problem. The Taliban did step in as a mediator between Islamabad and the TTP, but there has been no breakthrough, and skirmishes between the Pakistan army and the TTP continue. Despite Pakistan's uneasy relationship with the Afghan Taliban, Islamabad has little choice but to continue working with the Taliban to handle its terrorism problem. Pakistan recognizes that it cannot handle the crisis in Afghanistan alone and must rely on other allies, such as
China and Gulf nations, to guarantee that humanitarian help continues to flow to Afghanistan. While no country recognizes the Taliban-led new government in Afghanistan, Pakistan has few alternatives for open involvement. Islamabad, on the other hand, has opted not to recognize the new administration unilaterally. This demonstrates a willingness to collaborate with regional and international parties to solve the situation in Afghanistan. For the time being, the attention is on the humanitarian catastrophe in Afghanistan, but Pakistan must take the lead in developing a regional counterterrorism structure.